Electric power investment needs in advance
In last few years, coal prices contradictory intensifies day by day, electric power enterprise power reduced enthusiasm, even frequent short-term power shortage. In addition, the investment enthusiasm is also a corresponding reduction in thermal power. Since 2005, 6 consecutive years of power investment decrease compared to the same period in 2011, thermal power investment in 2005 46.4%, thermal power investment accounted for the proportion of the total investment of power also dropped to 28.4%. Should say, thermal power investment declined in line with the adjustment of energy structure and low carbon development. But the question is, in what way should be used to compensate for the thermal power investment to bring down the power supply gap, guarantee an adequate supply of electricity?
Recently, the China Electricity Council released the” 2011 national electric power supply and demand situation and the 2012 analysis and forecast” points out, 2012 national electric power supply and demand still greater overall. Regional, seasonal, seasonal power shortages still more outstanding, maximum power gap will reach 30000000 – 40000000 kilowatts. Electric couplet predictors of outcome, and cause the public to power shortage this year may concern.

Today great inflow of capital stock ( list) body of capital flows has been found to change! Free Level-2 high-speed market charge software with powerful function of free limit of power demand prediction reliability for power demand growth is very important to the developing countries. Developing electric power demand forecasting face more difficulties and challenges, this is mainly because of the national economic growth, system problem and Reform on electric power demand has a significant effect on. In addition, socioeconomic conditions, incidents as well as energy price subsidies often also affects the electric power demand.
Power is capital concentrated model industry, more than 85% of China’s electricity for production, power of surplus and shortage will bring tremendous economic cost. Shortage cost far more than the excess cost, the same percentage of power shortage loss is substantially higher than that to solve the shortage of investment required. But the power shortage cost also does not include to social stability and the investment environment of adverse effects, if it is also incorporated into the shortage of power loss, power shortage cost more.
Therefore, to ensure the rapid and stable economic growth, we need to establish” of” electric power investment and development strategy. ” Power ahead of the rest” refers to the assumption of power transmission and distribution is effective (including the Internet) premise, to maintain a certain degree of excess capacity, to meet the electricity needs of the unexpected growth. Of course, the ” power ” of go ahead of the rest to ensure power supply fail to solve the power industry chain contradiction leads to the” Soft Shortage” ( i.e. installed sufficient and generating enthusiasm shortages ).
Investment of our country electric power planning and approval by the government control, so the government must accurately grasp the power demand, with “the power to” ensure power supply. China is currently in the city industrialization development stage, international experience shows that a phase of the power demand with rapid growth and rigidity characteristics. In the fast changing demand high growth economy, despite the long GDP and electricity consumption has a relatively fixed ratio ( our country reforming and opening 30 years, annual GDP growth of 10%, the power consumption of the average annual growth rate is 10%, which is basically a than a relationship ), but the power needs of the short-term fluctuations in difficult prediction. Despite nearly 30 years, China has been in close to 10% of GDP growth rate, but the growth of power demand as the 1998 low to 2.8%, 2003 to 15.4% may also be such as.
Based on the electric power demand growth is not stable, it is necessary to establish early warning system of electric power. Current our country a few high power industry power consumption exceeds 60%, the power consumption by a small number of large electricity ‘s influence, the shortage of electricity in the early warning provided good information channels, also for the establishment of early warning system provides possible. In addition, industry structure, investment, large electricity prices and other information, can be in shortage of electricity effectively provide a warning prior to the arrival of. If the early warning system can provide early warning of early 1-2 years, the government can have sufficient time to solve the power shortage problem or reduce as far as possible shortage on economy impact.
Energy rich resources of the northwest provinces need roads, pipelines and transmission facilities support, to enable the resources to the eastern market. However, due to insufficient investment barriers and interconnection network, construction of power grid in China often can not keep up with the pace of growth of power capacity. Insufficient network transportation will cause the power imbalance, in some areas, and some areas of excess deficiency, which is the impact of the current power supply is one of the reasons. Power grid construction to improve power transmission in the range of mobility, thereby optimizing the existing generating capacity.



